TOTAL LOGIC
Do not always look for the best horse in the race:
The reason, the best horses do not always win, plus they are normally underpriced anyway.
Most horses are not suited to anyone pace on that particular day, out of 10 maybe only 4-5 horses are suited by whatever pace is set, the rest including many favs have no chance because race conditions are not going to suit their style of running.
The trainer when all other conditions are right when going for touch, he/she is only interested in what the pace is going to be, nothing else matters whether that includes a draw bias or not.
Do not rely on the form most of the time:
Horses win or lose races due to how their race was run on that day, I am talking about the type of pace that was set and being suited by that particular pace within that race.
The form most of the time is not relevant unless exactly the same conditions are taking place the last time when the horses met.
This never happens and is never likely to happen either, due to so many different horses competing against each other and the fact that horses never have the same draws again, same jockey's, same going, same track and same pace again...let alone feeling as good or as bad on the day as they last ran against each other.
Believing a horse who finished last or near last in its last race has no chance today:
It doesn't matter if a horse finished in the rear last time out or how far a horse was beaten, it's why it finished in the rear and beaten so far that you need to know. An example would be if the horse was in a duel with another horse in its last race and they burnt each other out on the front end and today the horse is likely to have an easy lead.
If it's a big price you could well be on a live contender provided the going is suitable and it's not inconvenienced by a bad draw. Saying that though, even with a bad draw, if the horse is the only pacesetter in the race, this horse should be a 2/1 favourite.
Lbs better off for beaten lengths:
Today it's still one of the biggest myths in horseracing, and it's not helped by TV pundits, commentators who keep droning on about it due to their lack of knowledge.
More often than not if horse A beats horse B by say 2 lengths and next time they meet, horse B is 2-10lb better off in the weights, horse A will normally win again.
Thinking the bookmakers actually know the true odds/prices of the runners:
Making punters miss out on big-priced winners because bookmakers think they have little chance of winning. Racegoers trust the bookmakers' odds/prices and are shocked when their original selections win, unwittingly trusting the bookmakers' opinion and not their own.
Last but not least, do not listen to tips and whispers:
The people giving them out most likely know less than you do about the subject.
PUNTERS MISTAKES
• Relying on tips or false information
• Relying on the form…pointless!
• Always trying to find the winner regardless of value.
• Always picking the best horse in the race.
• Punters not being aware of why they win/lose e.g. not understanding the logic to horse racing.
• Listening to racing presenters who don’t understand the logic of the game.
• Listening to racing presenters talking about lbs better off for lengths being beaten, not related. All horses are of different sizes, heights, lengths, and strengths. So, what may apply to one horse, will not apply to all the horses. What matters is the weight of the horse, a trainer knows his horse has reached peak fitness by how much his horse weighs.
• Listening to racing presenters who keep comparing turf form to all-weather form…not related.
• Listening to racing presenters when they do not understand the draw bias at any given track.
• Not assigning % chances to each horse in order to get their own realistic odds/prices.
• Not specializing, betting all types of races from a 5f Southwell race to a 3m Chase Perth.
• Not understanding the racetracks and why certain horses can or cannot win.
• Thinking top weights are disadvantaged on tight turning tracks.
• Looking in the Racing Post when the info they need is not actually in the paper.
• Racing Posts false draw stats are not actually broken down to reveal the truer figures.
• Believing a horse who finished last in its last race has no chance today, it doesn’t matter how far a horse was beaten L.T.O. it’s why it finished last that you need to know.
• Punters not being aware of ‘Trip Handicapping’ e.g. the real reason why a horse won or lost last time out.
• Not keeping detailed records of your bets, leading to the point below.
• Continually investing in races where they have a low success rate, instead of only investing in races where they know they normally win.
• Not knowing the truer odds in order to obtain value, accepting the bookmaker’s odds as gospel and not capitalizing on the bookies' errors.
• TV pundits & Punters thinking the bookmakers know the true odds/prices, making them miss out on big winners because the bookmakers think they have little chance of winning. Can you believe to this day TV pundits are still saying, 'No, couldn't back it at that price' e.g. if a horse was for example 10/1, 16/1 upwards. It's laughable because when your advantage is bigger, this is the only time to invest...it's why professionals make money and most TV pundits & punters don't.
• When a punter thinks he/she has picked the winner of a race but hasn’t calculated the horse’s chance of winning, they have placed themselves in a vulnerable position because no horse has a 100% chance of winning. Since most horses lose, punters should avoid thinking in terms of picking winners.
• Punters are selection orientated not PRICE orientated, it's why they never win overall. Professionals let the prices/odds of a horse determine whether they invest or not. Punters rely on the form which has nothing to do with racing, hence why the best horses normally get beaten. Racing is to do with pace, fitness & tactics not form.
These are some of the reasons why 98% of punters have a bad day at the races or lose overall.
This is a tough game and having someone with you who understands it, will inevitably lead you to learn more and have a better racing experience.
MAKING PROFITS
Picking winners is easy but not at the prices you need to show a profit, so the old myth that, 'a winner is a winner no matter what the price' is absolute nonsense.
Being disciplined and only investing when your selections are overpriced by a 100% margin or more compared to bookmakers odds, will save you a lot of money by avoiding the underlays (horses underpriced).
Below is an insight into what you could do if you want a chance of making a return from horseracing. You should acquire the skills to be able to accurately estimate the chances of success (probability) of a particular investment and assure yourself you have an edge.
Estimating probabilities can be quite a difficult task and is subject to wide variance. The better your ability to estimate a horse's chance of winning, the better and more successful investor you will be.
When you can do this by comparing your prices/odds to the bookmakers, then the margins you have dictated what investments e.g. horses should be done. In other words, you are price orientated and not selection orientated, this means you let prices dictate your actions and not the selections. This is how professionals differ from the TV pundits and 98% of the public.
Saying this horse or that horse will win, is just a mug's game and is connected with egos, but saying 'this horse or that horse has a good chance at a big price' is more sensible and is what a professional would do. A big price could mean 5/2 if he/she makes it an even-money shot.
Over the years listening to the guys on TV who wouldn't know what value was, even if it hit them in the face unless the horse was double-figure odds they wouldn't say it's value. The odds have nothing to do with it if you don't know what price the horse should be. Because a horse is 100/1 it doesn't make it value because it's a big price.
For someone who can work out the probabilities and knows what the truer % chance, a horse has, he/she has a least an idea that doesn't involve emotion or bragging.
Should you only invest when you have a big advantage, you will make money long-term. Most punters bet on horses who are not overpriced but underpriced, this is how the bookies make money because nobody can make money betting underpriced horses, simply because most horses lose including favs.
Remember it's not about winners, it's about finding horses who are overpriced and having the discipline to wait for them.
For the professional, making profits is about prices, not selections, they don't look for the best horse in the race, instead, look for the horses who are overpriced compared to their odds.
What the punters have to remember is, the bookies do not know the logic of horseracing whereas some of us do, and if you follow me especially on the bigger priced selections, you can have a lot of fun.
You can do all the above or just let me do the hard work for you in finding the overpriced horses when you visit the race track.
BOOKIES AT THE TRACK
Bookmakers on the rails who I have always respected, and have spoken to over the years, have always given the same old spiel about odds/prices for horse racing being about ‘opinions’
When you look deeper and are more analytical than 98% of punters, you realise that normally only 2% of those opinions are correct, which then leads me to think, is this really the case that horse racing is all about opinions?
I believe it’s more a case of having knowledge and understanding the logic of horse racing like professionals bettors do, and the bookmakers just using ‘opinions’ as an excuse for themselves not knowing the truer prices.
Yes, bookmakers may get a % of favourites right overall when their betting lines go up, which in actual fact is a low percentage of around 34% because many of the original favourites drift and other horses get bet into being favourite and win, these favourites are in mostly 2 and 3 yr old races e.g. Nursery’s, Maidens.
When it comes to the older horse races like 4 yr old + races, then, unfortunately, the bookmakers have not a clue as to what should be favourite. Now if you have someone guiding you and giving you the more realistic, truer odds, then this is where your racing excursions become much more fun and entertaining.
Time and time again my clients catch the bookies with their pants down, even at times getting up to a 1000% margin from their investing. I never give horse racing selections unless there is a 100% margin between my odds and the bookmakers. This in turn cuts out a lot of losing investments by only investing when you have an edge and a big edge is what my clients continuously have by hiring me for their race days.